re: anyone follow? dnatron BillyMy own estimate, based on...

re: anyone follow? dnatron Billy

My own estimate, based on previous quarterly reports is that ANL recovers only 80% of Ni metal and perhaps would break even at about 30,000 tpa, which is in agreement with your own calculations.

The ore grade is about 1.3% Ni, so a drop in ore grade to 1.2% is 7.7% less metal produced assuming that the recovery is still 80% and not less.

At 1.0% ore grade, there is 23% less metal produced, and even if the rectification works are successful, then the recovery rate would have to rise to 99% to compensate for the ore grade.

Now this is a tall ask, as no plant recovers 99% of the metal that goes through it.

So ANL is in trouble, maybe not today but within four years.

As long as they know that Heron is still a spinster, ANL, Glencore, Mattlin Patterson and the ANL shareholders are safe.

Once Heron gets married, it's curtains for ANL and its shareholders, Glencore and Mattlin Patterson.

Arhidas