its obvious money is already pushing hard into illiquid physical...

its obvious money is already pushing hard into illiquid physical gold/silver. the scarcity of physical is now obvious

its only the paper PM exposures that arent being bid hard as yet - but im sure they are being accumulated by the market makers. theyll just keep running the dosey doe play of false breakouts to weary retail until the signal comes to release PMs

as i posted yesterday - i suspect what paper gold/silver exposures need is for bond rates to start moving sustainably higher on an interim basis

which is counter-intuitive - normally the argument for rising PM prices is falling long term bond real yields.

but the long term real rates were already negative before covid

an intermediate rise in bond rates would indicate big money coming out of bonds and back into all high liquidity risk asset classes.

once that safety flight bond money comes out I expect a disproportionate flow of new money in PMs and miners pushing them higher

i had thought the US risk markets were possibly telling us it was already there with the way it was pricing in a May full reopening

but when i look at Covid new case rates theres no indication they have peaked at all - let alone falling away. that why im pretty confident the algos are simply ramping US equity indexes ahead of another big sploosh down

and the oil price making new lower lows below the 20 handle is confirmation of that ongoing expectation of suppressed demand and a much slower return to new normal in the US and elsewhere.

so more patience likely needed

though got to see next weeks trading - the monthly US options expiry on Friday night makes it unreliable as an indicator by itself