By my calculations, EBITDA of $15-$18m falls out at about $3.2-$5.2m NPAT (PE 6.6-10.7). Taken at it's most positive, the $18m would represent $11m EBITDA in second half for an annualised NPAT of $8m (PE 4.3). Divs should provide support to the share price at current yield, with upside if they can increase margins - a 0.1% increase in net profit margin potentially adds 2-3 cents to the value of the shares.
It was my experience with RNS in NZ (and to a lesser extent, CLT in Aus) that makes me wary of VTG. However, it appears to be better run than RNS ever was (and at least shouldn't be affected by earthquakes!). Value is there in the same way - i.e. very low P/S ratio which means it can make small moves in margin produce a strong trade (often underpinned by good divs). RNS gave me some brilliant early trades before it gave me one really bad one...
VTG Price at posting:
24.5¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
