anyone know the be price per barrel, page-10

I wish I could be so sure it will turn and return back to its old levels.

From a fundamental analysis point of view though I don't know how anyone can be so sure.

I'm no expert but I see on ROC"s investor presentations that the bulk of ROC"s oil production will come in the next 2 or 3 years.

This seems to coincide with forecasts of an oil glut.

Considering the vast sums they plough into exploration and development it's hard to see how there's going to be a lot left for shareholders.

The broker I mentioned earlier was Merill Lynch, which has a 68c price target on research done on in late november. According to the article (on FN Arena) Merills is one of the most bearsish brokers on oil, forecasting an oil price for 2009 of 'just' USD$50 a barrel. The 68c price target is based on US$50/barrel oil next year with gradual rise back to US$70 for the year after.

Now, I don't know jack either about oil and gas and the problem I'm facing is trying to come up with an intrinsic valuation of what ROC's worth, conservatively. I made the mistake of leaving that job to TII but now it's clear they have NFI about valuing oil and gas assets. I've written their valuations off completely, they aren't dependable in the slightest. Anyone care to have a go at valuing ROC?