When those studies were done, buy and hold was unquestionably...

When those studies were done, buy and hold was unquestionably the go in what was one of the greatest and most sustained bull markets of all time. Meanwhile, those who did the studies continue to earn their academic salaries.

The Motley Fool's "Dogs of the Dow" was arguably the simplest, fastest and most successful Mum's and Dad's type investment system in the U.S. in the 1990's, taking as it did no more than two hours to implement per year and consistently giving returns of at least 20% p.a. However, the Motley Fool recently abandoned the technique because it had become too popular and it was no longer a bull market, so was losing. Reminds me of T1 buy and hold working well enough that the Mum's and Dad's of Oz piled on for T2 and soon found passive investing was a fast track to big losses.

On average, women are better cooks than men, yet most of the world's great chefs are men. Something similar occurs in trading.

Most studies show that real estate is the foundation of riches for the top echelon, yet property is not the foundation of the world's richest men.

Most think Buffet is the world's greatest investor and he holds stocks for a great many years. The reality is he runs an insurance company, trades not infrequently, has lost for the last few years, got his start in the world's most sustained bull market in the world's richest country and has always had help from many quarters (which includes a defacto Ponzi scheme in effect), whereas the best traders tend to be loners. What would Buffet and Gates (who got a fantastically lucky break from the start) have if they had to liquidate on market without a deal a compliant party to sell to? At least their investments are arguably in their name and they wield power because of them.

http://www.ctiming.com ... "In 1987 Larry Williams traded $10,000 to over $1.1 million in a Trading Competition. In 1997 his daughter, Michelle, won the same Trading Competition." He now teaches courses which include live trading demos and warrants quite often that he will be successful during the course or refund the fees of participants. Unlike LW, the best traders tend to be loners once they've worked out what works for them. For various reasons, they usually find it very difficult to teach others (assuming they are even interested) and milk the market with most assets syphoned off elsewhere.

Long term, buy and hold for derivatives (and most commodity) traders is rarely profitable.

Ray Baross has been called Australia's best futures trader by ATAA representatives. His courses are more expensive than any black box or system I've seen discussed on HC. Most of his courses deal with psychology. If I recall correctly, he used to be a lawyer. A popular misconception is that the best traders are drawn from those who are whizzes with numbers.

"The Commodity Futures Game: Who Wins, Who Loses, Why" analysed thousands of commodity futures accounts from the 1920's. A very detailed book and intellectual (in parts) book with analysis and results across a wide spectrum of players, the outcomes for whom bore a remarkable resemblance to the 1990's. As with today, the main winners were those with sizeable money to begin with who had good sources of information and access to good systems and could recognise when it was a buy and hold market, when it was a shorting market etc.

Schwager's "Market Wizards" is recognised as one of the classics with its interviews of many of the world's most successful traders. The number one book they recommended was Lefevre's http://www.stock-market-seminars.com/downloads/reminiscences-of-jesse-livermore.pdf for which many recommend reading the last chapter first. Successful trading can be a lot like that. Note, that book is free by going to that link. The book sells for up to $70 elsewhere. I have never found a broker, HC participant, analyst, newsletter writer or investment adviser who has said they know where they can get that book for free (apart from through a library or friend), yet a free book exists. Similarly, truly successful traders are quite hard to find, but they di exist and I count myself fortunate to be in contact with a few. Learning from them can be harder still, but the rewards on offer are greater than almost any other field of endeavour for a normal human being. As for whether it's a legitimate activity which contributes to society ... the jury is still out.