Good opportunity to pick UXC up cheap through buying IGG - buying IGG at 26c equates to buying UXC at 52c plus a pretty strong potential for a further 25% UXC shares when 2009 IGG profit forecast is hit. You have to believe that the IGG directors are confident of their 2009 forecast to strike this deal. Its only 8 months away so most of the business will already be contracted. I would say that buying IGG at 26c today equates to buying UXC at 41c - huuuuge discount to UXC's already low sp.
Oh - and Geoff Lord just forked out 50c per share to buy 12m UXC shares back from ANZ - so you are getting an even better deal than the Exec Chairman.
If we say UXC's sp is say 62c and apply a 50% probability of IGG hitting 2009 target then you could pay up to 33c for IGG and still be ahead
Risk of non completion is pretty low IMHO.
These sort of arbitrages pop up for the brave when markets are in these states of fear
UXC Price at posting:
61.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held