anz ceasing substancial holding, page-16

Ev, theres some you can't help no matter what. Ed, just been over our spreadsheets again: our figures for 2009/10 were comparable and if we take the worse case scenario whereby I/O tonnage in 2010 drops to 5,000,000 tonnes and say Lithium drops to say 10,000 tonnes production.

Revenue:
5,000,000T @ $90.00/T = $450,000,000
60% to ADY = $270,000,000
less Opex ($20.00/T) = $100,000,000(using your figsED ok)
EBIT = $170,000,000
NPAT = $119,000,000
Convert US/AUD 0.93c = $127,956,989
Shares after demerger = 280,000,000
EPS = .457
P.E. say 8 = $3.66

Now, lets try the same scenario if only 10,000T lithium
Revenue:
10,000T @ $6500/T = $65,000,000 (conservative)
80,000T Potosh @$500 = $40,000,000 (conservative)
= $105,000,000
less opex $35,000,000 = $70,000,000
less tax = $49,000,000
Convert AUD/USD .93 = $52,688,172
EPS = 0.188
P.E. of say 15 = $2.82


This would give a combined share price of $6.48 in 2010 if production does not go as well as the company predicts.
Please feel free to correct, lambast, crucify or call me bad names if you consider figures are incorrect - I would welcome your comments,
cheers,
Ray.