anz has topped, page-54

ctindale---while you are busy reading all the negative projections i note the broader market does not agree with the theory.

you are correct in stating my working life coincided with credit expansion and debt has been a big driver.

where i think a lot of these comparisons fail is in analysis
the history and management of r/e o/s.

unlike england and probably europe we have very little public housing.

unlike europe ,usa,japan our history is a bit over 200years
fuelled almost totally by migration.

unlike all those places our population has from 1950 grown dramatically

unlike many other nations we have very generous tax concessions for housing to ensure supply is not a government sponsored domain.

unlike any established western nation our housing is on average less than 35 years old.

as with every developed nation the cost of supply affects
the sale price.

so if r/e is to come down by 50% across the board where will
the costs come out--the land,the building,the labour component,the materials component.

to acheive that we would need massive multi storey developments dominating the r/e sector

then in about 30-40 years you might see a statistical correlation supporting the theory.

my first free standing home cost 3x my income which is the very reason i bought knowing that at 24 yrs old my income would probably rise,my wife earnt about 85% of my income,we had an excellent lifestyle with outright ownership in 3 years.

yes some areas are overpriced,yes it would be nice to buy at
3x income for a family home,but no its not likely to happen.

although i lowered my expectation after selling my home to
correct the result of over exposure to the share market in the GFC which resulted in horrendous losses.

today i live in a unit,it cost less than 3x my income but there is little likelihood that i will own it in less than
11 years because i only have 1 income.

so continue if you will but consider the factors that drive our r/e a little closer