Well Morgan and Stanley have made their call and the options...

Well Morgan and Stanley have made their call and the options players have made a motza but given the extent of the recapitalization and unknowns its an easy call to make. We've seen with the likes of NAB a reluctance to drop dividends when needed.

I was at a bit of loss about today's fall until I read the article which is decidedly negative for the whole industry. Cashflow in the oil is only now starting to hurt as all older hedges have expired so I think its a little early to dramatically increase provisions given STO and ORG recap's and WPL sailing ok. The fallout from China is unknown. Typically Chinese look for a safe haven and Australian real estate has been that so I cant see that slowing or even reversing if Chinese shares are not going to make money. Drought relief may be coming in the next few months and as GDP is plodding along it seems net profit should be flat ish .. so the DRP will probably determine how close ANZ comes in to its capital needs in February.

I posted last qtr that mid$25 was possible but it missed so I topped up cum div and am still long. Its probably still a long term buy but the US market is so skittish anything is possible and we have seen before that US fund managers are quite happy to trash overseas markets in order to cash up for a USD rally. So its really a question of what OPEC, the Fed and the Chinese do over the next month or so .. isn't it?