ANZ pays 10% in Dividends, page-50

Most of ANZ's postions in Asia are via minority stakes. These presumably should be able to be marked to market. So if these banks go bust ANZ losses its equity in them.

Regarding loans into Asia directly, given ANZ can apply there own lending standards, a 50% loss on loans seems very very excessive ! Why would ANZ lend like a Chinese State Lender ?

Oil and Gas sector worth 10c in $. So that should mean STO, ORG, WPL and OSH will all go to zero. After a firesale the assets will only be worth 10c in $. Not plausible. It is far more likely that weak oil/gas firms get taken over and loans novated, or worse case, lenders sell assets for 80-90c in $ to a bigger player.

DSD seems to think ANZ's exposure to oil and gas is through buying sub investment grade debt. This stuff is tradeable and probably would be reduced to 10c in $. It is very unlikely ANZ has much of this as it is mostly in the US.

DSD please live in real world with you back of envelope calculations. If the GFC taught me anything, banks nornally win and fight another day.

ANZ's weakness is directly the result of Morgan Stanley note and overall weakness in Aussie market. The Aussie market seems to be driven by alogarithm trading more so than ever and with no buyers we are seeing extreme price weakness.

The trend is down, I am convinced that if China doesnt have a hard landing (ie gvt can stabilse), then the ASX200 will form a bottom around 4600. Around 4600, ANZ could well be $21. At this level, ANZ would be a strong buy.

Dont panic, as Warren Buffett said when he bought into IAG, he thought Aussie Banks were interesting. Buffett may well think ANZ is very interesting now its share price is 20% lower.