anz sending 500 jobs to india, page-19

The mainf problem is geopolitcal stability Pakistan is moving much further to the Islamic right and the moderates have lost or losing power. Lets not get caught up in the semantics of who attacks who, the reality is that there is a probability of war between the states and a war where it would be hard to resolve a winner or loser, the recent withdrawal from the Swat valley of the Pakistan army widens legitimacy for the Taliban, next if we follow their modi operandi they will try and provoke India into a confrontation with Pakistan,

Thet Lashkar Jhangvi based in Punjub had strong ties with the Taliban and operated in Afghanistan and Indian Kashmir. The Pakistani Taliban emergence in teh FATA happened when the Pakistanis were fighting the foreign Taliban elements and in the process ignored the transition of the indigenous elements from Taliban sympathizers to a force fully subscribing to the Taliban ideology.

During this process the Pakistani Taliban effectively established themselves as an alternative leadership to the traditional tribal elders. By the time the Pakistani government realized the changing dynamics and tried to resurrect the tribal jirga institution, it was too late. The Taliban had killed approximately 200 of the tribal elders under charges of being Pakistani or American spiesetc etc etc

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan announced a program of defensive jihad against Pakistan army, enforcement of Sharia laws, and to unitedly fight against NATO forces in Afghanistan. These elements appear to be more extremist as the traditional intermediaries between the Taliban and the establishment has been replaced by a younger generation of more violent radical leaders who are in a hurry and have no patience for compromise

The Pakistani Taliban are a new breed, these younger leaders are far worse than the traditional Taliban Not to mention the emerging Bangladesh Taliban on the other side of India.

Bush's impossibly stupid niave and arrogant ideas of American or western "hard power" has created the worst of all circumstances, we have the Taliban rapidly gaining control of Pakistan and Kashmir , Bangladesh is looking shaky and the very strategy that provoked the US into invading Afgahn in the first place looks like its got some probability of success with India, the secular India could be provoked into war it cannot possibly win .

combined with the downturn that mimics the commodity busts that preceded WW2 and various revolutions in the past the physics could unwind into a big war between India/Pakistan that draws in the rest of the world.

In that event Indian outsourcing may suffer a set back or three.

My prediction is war between Pakistan and India probably starting in Kashmir within 2 years