ANZ (ASX) ANZ

Originally posted by angelus512 ↑

I genuinely would like to hear a response back to this if you have the time. You wrote "we have a serious virus".

How so? Genuine question on my behalf - How So?

Any look at the statistics and spread of this virus tells the tale that it is literally a nothing event. What is making it an event is how people are reacting and behaving.

1. Taking Australia for example. 600 cases and something in the order of 6 deaths so 1% basically. 6 deaths? 6....and we are talking about how the nation needs to be on LOCKDOWN like its the zombie apocalypse over 6 bloody deaths? More people have died from road accidents probably in the last 2-3 weeks.

2. Take China as an example. They have been back to work as normal roughly a month ago. They went on lockdown for 1 to 1.5 months and now people are back to work as usual (I know because I operate a factory in Shenzhen) so I talk to them on the daily. Yet Australia is talking total garbage like 6+ months to "get to the other side" Well why has it taken China roughly 1 month?

3. 220,000 people worldwide (known) but its the only stat I can go off. 220K in a world population of some 8 billion people and COVID19 has been around since December. Thats hardly an "aggressive" spread. If this virus was a genuinely deadly virus you'd have millions infected 10+ by now and 100K+ dead.

4. Any examination of the dead stats shows that generally anybody under 50 years old basically has a very unfun time for 2 weeks and they get through to the other side. My aunty who is around 50-55 years of age has Coronavirus and she's locked down in a hotel in Tassy at the moment. She told me its largely a non-event for her. She doesn't feel very nice but thats about it.

So I genuinely no offence to anybody do not agree or understand how this is a "serious virus".

What is making the situation serious is how everybody is reacting and behaving about it that is causing the real damage.

Maybe I'm just thick or looking at things simplistically but given the volume of cases, the demographics of people who die or are effected by it (its 60+ years old people generally just FYI), the fact this virus is at 600 cases in a total pop size of 24 million and more people probably have the flu right now (or will die from the flu) this year......

I don't get it. I genuinely dont get it. 6 people or so are dead at this point. Also of the 220K vases worldwide close on 100K of those are already classed as "recovered.

Whats doing the damage is how people keep bloody talking about it every second like its deadly or something when any examination of ANY of the stats clearly shows it is not.

Expand

Short post as I've got to bounce.

According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ the fatality rate is 9%.
The seasonal flu, which typically kills 0.1 percent of patients. Massive difference is it not? 400+ people died in Italy alone last night.

The CAPE is down from 33.3 to 23.5 for the DJ, but still remains way above the long run average. I agree with Peter Wargent that US stocks still way overvalued.

I respectfully believe the markets have more to fall.

Source:

- https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
- https://www.sciencealert.com/the-ne...the-flu-but-they-have-one-big-thing-in-common
- http://petewargent.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2020-03-16T23:26:00+11:00&max-results=8

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Last $29.60		Change 0.260(0.89%)		Mkt cap ! $89.07B

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$29.49	$29.73	$29.30	$111.6M	3.774M

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