I don't want to go over the numbers for Cellucreme yet again. Suffice it to say that I deem the SCE estimate of the influence of this project on the share price to be on the low side, i.o.w., it's very, very conservative.
Instead I want to comment on another issue that you have broached. One problem that dogged Metabolic Pharmaceuticals repeatedly as they ran a sequence of trials of orally administered AOD9604 was that they had no effective way to measure either the pharmacokinetics or the pharmacodynamics of AOD9604 in humans.
Several posters on the MBP forum at the time (2003-2004) savaged the MBP scientists for the glaring absence of this data. Without hard data, MBP had no choice but to do extremely difficult and problematic trials, attempting to stay within rigorous statistical criteria. This was difficult because the measured trial data depended not only from the administration and direct effects of AOD9604, but from the whole spectrum of human behavior during diet and weight loss efforts.
Combined with the loss of potential efficacy due to degradation as the orally delivered drug passed through the gut - and to different degrees of degradation and absorption in different people - the results were predictably ambiguous and unconvincing.
It is impossible to overstate the importance of a test that can directly measure the effects of AOD9604 on fat deposits by testing for a specific byproduct of lipolysis. This will speed the route to market for Cellucreme, certainly.
It also offers the possibility for a more expeditious route to regulatory approval for another AOD9604 product - a systemic patch for general weight loss (lipolysis of visceral fat) that is complimentary to Cellucreme (lipolysis of subcutaneous fat).
I look forward to the development of BOTH products; Cellucreme now, and when appropriate, a seven-day weight loss patch.
When I have the opportunity. this is a prospect I would love to discuss with Esra.
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