aoi update in relation to 08 oppies

I'm sure that by now a good deal of rrs holders would have read Sophie's AOI update..

Apart from stating that the camp site and drilling materiel were in Djibouti and on their way to Punty, the fact that ''early July'' was stated for spudding, should have the 08 oppie holders working out their big co jones strategies .

Add 50 days to early July and you really have to wonder whether any Jurassic oil discovery has any sort of chance at all of making it to the public announcement soap box by late September, given that any amount of testing, or drilling set backs could protract the ideal scenario.

I have seen all sorts of numbers bandied about expectation wise for sp during drilling...

Most spudding/ drilling/ pre hole completion sp guestimates fall into the 2 to 4 dollar range,,, but how could this happen ?

IMO for this to even partially materialise, a number of the following sp drivers would need to happen.

US Fundie/broker house support

AIM,UK,EU fundie/broker house support

A considerable change in asx retail sentiment.

A consistency in recently promised transparency (now that the state of the union has been clearly defined and understood by all relevant parties)including timely updates regarding mou's psa's and jv's.and perhaps starting by updating shareholders regarding the impied significance of the 1.5 million dollar on market strategic play that is to significantly benefit rrs and therefore it's shareholders.


A considerable cretaceous discovery announced on the way to the main Jurassic target.


SP manipulation, again with the aid of Christian D.



In all reality, any decision to exercise the 08 options will have to be done in at best,,,the drilling phase...


Not that bad a thing given that for this play, the hoops that have been jumped thru, and the hurdles that have been overcome to get a drill into this potentially massive 9 billion bbl play (as stated in the same aoi update that I refer to)are by for more significant than say Austin oils Yorktown spudding/drilling a little over a year ago that took it's sp from 18c to 110c before that well was abandoned.

But add into any calculation a couple of stats and factors in relation to the last sp potential driver on the list;

The company stands to bank around 70 million dollars if 08 option holders see value in exercising.

That goes a hell of a long way when you are looking to get positioned for the dozens of potential joint or stand alone ventures that are on the drawing board.

That's about the Co's market cap at the moment roughly speeking.

At strike price the mkt cap would be in the low 200 mil ball park....but;

A considerable percentage of the company's shares are in voluntary escrow, or are tightly held...

Tightly held by non trading top 20 and or insto holders as well as up to say, half of the remaining 29% of fpo holdings

So,,, in all reality,,, if you take out the lions share of the top 20's 71%,,,,say 65% and a significant portion of the remaining 29%, say half for arguments sake,,,roughly 80% of the fpo's are ''held'' for an expected end play result.

In other words,, the pool of fpo's that are available to potentially excite the sp into a ''run'', are at the moment valued at less than 15 million dollars....

you see where I'm going with this....but don't forget;


The once unlisted 2010 options that were mostly free, were legitimised as a by and by when the 1c one for 8'ers were listed...

So in a nut shell.

I think a sp slightly above the strike price is the number we will see during drilling, and it will have more to do with running the stock in a feed lot, and sustaining during the drilling phase an understanding that, once the force feeding starts, and the fat starts to appear, a trend is inculcated.... much more so than letting them ''free range'' in the top paddock.

Or to be blunt...

Incremental legitimisation may be tempered by more of the same...for a shot at the oppie cash prize.