APA FY24 guidance results were a miss. Reported FY24 underlying EBITDA was in line with market expectations, however FY25 EBITDA and DPS forecasts are marginally weaker than consensus expectations.
In addition market concerned on two additional issues:
a) APA's new guidance on capex organic growth and foundational capex against a 'constrained' debt profile.
b) issues around regulatory draft decision on the South West QLD Pipeline (this decision should come out in the next couple of months, but will create regulatory share pricing risk in the mean time)
Hence the market does what the market does and pushes down the share price, when expectations are missed, or the market becomes more concerned about a regulatory risk issue.
For myself, I am happy with this, as it reduces future market expectations.
And with the share price now trading on an FY25 gross yield of nearly 7.9% (57c/$7.24), I am now in with a first position, and personally will feel comfortable slowly dollar averaging downwards from here.
So in with a 1st position now at $7.24
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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55 | 51983 | $6.71 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$6.72 | 65242 | 68 |
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64 | 137773 | 6.700 |
22 | 101988 | 6.690 |
18 | 111957 | 6.680 |
12 | 23188 | 6.670 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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6.720 | 70542 | 70 |
6.730 | 34482 | 23 |
6.740 | 91267 | 18 |
6.750 | 88078 | 13 |
6.760 | 94348 | 10 |
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