Heres my take on major shareholders for what its worth.The issue...

Heres my take on major shareholders for what its worth.

The issue with main shareholders APAC and Shougang Concord also have long term offtake agreements to buy 100% of Koolan and Tallering peak production. Shougang also own 14% of APAC. Therefore you would assume they would look to sell IO to themselves as cheaply as possible though contracts seem to be at market prices. Also a takeover of MGX would only secure the company not the iron ore so any buyer looking to secure IO supply would need to buy out the offtake agreements as well.

In Shougangs latest report a HK$324M profit was booked for change in fair value of the long term iron ore offtake agreement with Mt. Gibson so looks as if they are doing OK from it. 2011 Annual report "This offtake agreement is classified as financial asset, the value of which is calculated by independent valuer in accordance with factors such as iron ore purchase quantity and its annual forecasted prices, resulting in book gain or loss. Since both iron ore purchase quantity and its forecasted prices are higher than that of 2010, fair value of this asset has net increased by HK$324 million in the year under review." Though with declining IO prices this accounting profit could easily become a loss next year

APAC is an investment company and would be willing sellers for the right price. Chinese steel mills are under a lot of pressure and Shougang made a loss last year so would also probably be happy to sell its stake for some cash and retain or negotiate offtake. Both bought a big swag at 60c during the GFC and effectively saved the company (thanks for that)so a still a tidy profit.

I guess the management and board issues, mine life, general iron ore malaise and large influential shareholders/customers, etc makes investors nervous.

From latest quarterly looks like they are still successfully digging stuff out of the ground and sending it to China for a good profit so hopefully things will settle, new MD gets appointed, IO price doesn't dive and share price goes up.