The recent posts are a little like Groundhog Day from 2 years back when enthusiastic holders engaged in bidding wars as to what the SP should be. $1 was the aspirational figure.
Back then there were so many unresolved questions (ie risk) that had to be factored in and no demo plant .... just clever technology. SP was driven more by market exuberance than anything else.
NOW.... we are on the cusp of generating earnings ($8-10M?)by the end of year, which will put a basement on the SP. And what happens? The SP tanks to a market cap of $25M.
Looking back at Ferg's spreadsheet v3.0 (thanks again Ferg!!), the estimate of sp for earnings from the Newcastle EARS plant alone was around 7 cents based on NPV of cash generation.
Now that's at 100% probability and I suppose there is always a chance that the deal may fall over. I would have thought that was fairly unlikely, but the market seems to be saying (based on today's sp) that its almost a definite.
Did Greenspan ever talk about irrational pessimism?
APG Price at posting:
3.2¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
