Great analysis Chuckbass. I am in the disability allied health...

Great analysis Chuckbass. I am in the disability allied health sector and I am curious about the APM story because they have acquired one of our industry leaders Everyday Independence (EI). I have to say that the NDIS reflects a similar sentiment as you summarised, less uproom due to government funding cut pressure and high mainteance cost, due to market competition.

APM's current financial status does look gloomy to me, particularly with the relatively small working capital $100m ish for 17,000 employees they claimed, which is essentially per capita 6k as cash reserved. This is +/- one month of working capital in a human servicing sector which is kind of scary, given the size of the company.

It is indeed mind-boggling to see the level of Debt they are in now $1bn instead of $860m you quoted last month and further interest hike. I think it is likely that they will need to orchestrate a Cap Raise leading or post their quarterly to pump their cash position. This is because traditionally Dec/Jan/Feb is the month that the human servicing industry will dip in a seasonal drop which will have a material impact on the cashflow and bottomline situation.

If they do call a Cap Raise, I am afraid $1.00 or sub $1.0 will be on the card due to the timing and the financial results which are groomy to come.

DYOR