As each day goes by with no word then one of 6 things is...

As each day goes by with no word then one of 6 things is happening.

From worst to most positive.

1/ARI is still burning big cash.-unlikely
2/ARI is in heavy negotiations with potential parties for a business unit-possibly not Moly-cop.
3/ARI is in heavy negotiations to sell part or whole of Moly-cop,or merge with a European/Sth American manufacturer of media,freeing cash.
4/ARI is in negotiations with bankers to amend covenants temporarily as cash flow is improving.
5/ARI's cash flow is improving and before long it will not need to consider asset sales if they are sustained.
6/Australian Steel rationalisation - with ARI exiting more non-core parts including Metcentre and more land and other deals done.

Since the restructuring announcement,a few things have happened.

IO prices have recovered from $40 for 62% FE and are holding around the $50-$55 mark as globally miners continue to close and larger miners look at exiting high cost sites.
The Australian dollar has fallen.
The scrap price has fallen making ARI's arc furnaces highly profitable - everywhere,especially Australia.
The Australian GOVT has announced a ship-building program for Sth Australia.
If that occurs then it may very well be good for ARI as a major supplier of heavy plate down the road.
ARI has considerable land that could be used for ship-building adjacent its works,as has happened in its past.
New rail upgrades have been announced along with roads and all primary users of ARI's high tensile extrusions with no other local manufacturer.
Domestically ARI is due to be "in the money" as a result as most of its construction supplies(rebar) go into commercial/industrial and High Rise inner city housing all growth segments at the moment.

These are totally separate from domestic residential ,which is only a minor market for them and has little effect on the ARI business.

If ARI had been just a miner it would have been long gone without steel cash flow to restructure itself,however that mining kept the cash flowing and Whyalla mill in feed at reduced cost,supporting it through its dip.

IF ARI has had a good QTR then EBITDA for steel would still be positive from its last good QTR ($35m) and rising with growing demand.
Consumables should be seeing less manufacturing for more Margin and considerably reduced shipping costs per ton compared to prior media sales.e.g. ball lasts 20% longer and COSTS CUSTOMERS MORE,means 20% less shipping,handling and less comparative cost per ton of prior used raw materials. That also in theory frees up 20% of existing capacity to take business away from existing competitors,or around 150kt of capacity in addition to expansions underway.
23% rise in consumables profit without wire ropes says that rise can probably be expected again at least with the new product and added to that where it may expand Moly-Cop product into fringe media markets.
At a guess of $1000-1500 a ton for big balls are big money and the customers just keep coming back for years after years wanting more and more.

Interesting times ahead.

DYOR + DYODD all the gloom - Chinese economy continues to grow and demand has not stopped although steel mills around Beijing will be shut for a month to improve air quality soon,reducing domestic supply and drawing many current steel exports back to internal chinese use.
I'll top up then when more doom and gloom about the IO glut surface.