Appen and the Nasdaq, page-8

Interesting points. Let's have a look...

Nasdaq position - basically 55% of the NDX is the top 10 companies.
80% sitting at the top 30 companies.


So adding in the most recent (within 10yr) all time high prices, then adding in the stocks current price, we can see where each company is with respect to their all time high.

Green = within 10% off ATH (so bull market still)
Yellow = 10% to 20% off ATH (so correction)
Red = >20% off ATH (so bear market)



You'll now see that the top 15 companies are all either in bull runs with some in a correction. It's not until you get to company 16 and lower do you start to see companies in bear markets.

So here's the hypothetical - let's say the Fed jacks the rates to the point where money runs towards risk free returns (bonds, etc.) and we see a total collapse of the Nasdaq. I've assume each company will move to 50% off their ATHs. Some companies have further to fall than others, as some as almost near the 50% mark in some circumstances.

I had to stop the calculation at the 80% of companies points (33 out of 103 companies analysed) because i have to leave work now haha.

Anyway, assuming the top 80% of the Nasdaq pulls back to a MAX of 50% from ATH, the Nasdaq itself would see at most, a 30% - 40% pullback (I calculated 34.10%). So, I guess if and when this occurs, I shall have confidence to begin buying the Nasdaq (and other companies) once we see more than a 30% pullback.

And finally let's look at the strong parallel channel being formed by the current push up since July-ish last year. There's a lot of respect going on for that support line. I'm moving towards taking some serious profits once this trend is broken - which may in fact be when the Fed lifts rates in 2022.



For openness, I hold nearly $330,000 of Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF, using NAB's Equity Builder product at an average price of $26.22 (leveraged at 3:1) - so I have serious interest in keeping this green for as long as possible and taking profits at the opportune moment. Then re-leveraging to buy the eventual dip.

TTT