Ann: Appendix 3Y (Raphael Geminder), page-2

Per my Post#: 72069124 25/01/24 16:21

“It’s hard toreconcile all trades, given the huge error by RG/Link disclosed in the App 3Yon 16 Jan. But if one assumes that the substantialsh notice from RG [published on 28 Dec reporting trades up to COBon 27^th Dec] was correct [it showed 84.46%] eventhough the 3Y was wrong (perhaps a big IF) Kin has not increased by 1.0% since then (as there has not been anothersub sh notice, which would otherwise have been required). Thus RG has acquiredless than 3.44m since 27 Dec either on market or by off market acceptances.”

Today’s Appendix 3Y confirms this- and the total movement ismuch less than 1%. “Date of change 23 to 29 Jan inclusive: change 920,087. No. of securities held after change 292,237,969 = 84.88%“. An App 3Y must be given within 5 business days of the change- RG has chosen to give a bulk disclosure of 5 days acquisitions‘ here, rather than show each day’s change separately. It is worth watching for future App 3Y disclosures, as these must be made within 5 business days even for tiny changes- whereas the substantial shareholder notices only have to be made for aggregate moves of 1.0% or more. There are 2 weeks until the bid expires, unless extended. RG, as a director, will have to report even tiny changes within that period on a 3Y, perhaps on at least two occasions. My guess is that they are likely to show only tiny changes unless some big holders blink at the last moment.

In the month from 27 December to 29 January he has acquired only 84.88% - 84.46% = 0.42% (both from on markettrades and off market acceptances. It is clear that his holding has been increasingonly at snail’s pace for several weeks. It’s easy to see this for on market trades- as Kin can buy there only at 84.00 cents, and only a tiny number have gone through recently at that price. But what this announcement proves is that the off- market acceptances are also coming in very slowly now. This is good news for those holders who want the bid to fail, as is the emergence of the TIC parties recently with an increased holding of 5.0%. It’s now four and a half months since the bid was launched. One would expect by now that the remaining holders are either completely uninterested in what is happening or, more likely, are disinclined to accept. Some may be holding out in the erroneous hope of the bid being increased again: that should be small as docs from bidder and target have emphasised it can’t be increased (within this bid). My guess is that most of the holdouts are doing so deliberately and happy for the bid to expire. They want to stay and fight another day. We can expect some desperate communications from RG/Kin in the days until 12 February, but RG can legally do very little. He will either have to keep extending the bid from 12 Feb, or accept defeat (for now) and give up with less than 90%.

Not advice.DYOR.