Approaches to intrinsic value of HLI

Looking beyond just NTA, which already makes HLI look cheap, I’ve been thinking about how to best gauge the range of the intrinsic value of HLI.
A few positives that add to intrinsic value for me:
- no need for lots of physical offices
- no inventory to warehouse
- no higher raw material / supply chain / shipping or freight type issues
- LMI and HLIs many product variations on LMI and deposit assistance are necessary for many buyers, and people will pay even begrudgingly when the alternative is missing out on the home the have already chosen / formed a connection with
- rising inflation means product, like most insurance, increases year on year
- pricing insurance to compensate for risk is being well managed
- balance sheet is strong
- RBA research paper on the double trigger hypothesis shows both negative equity and unemployment generally need to occur together for defaults to occur / LMI claim to be triggered
- CEO is a conservative actuary
- good forward contracts in place with CBA and others
- proposed buy backs of 80M shares (23% of shares on issue)

I haven’t refined this any further yet but I can’t see why HLI won’t have a $4 in front of it some time this year.

And even after excess capital is returned to investors, so long as insurance business performs profitably I can’t see why in the Australian context with our love of property why I would ever sell HLI as it seems destined to return cash to shareholders for a long time to come.

I would be keen to hear others views on how they see HLI performing in 10 years and beyond. Any thoughts?