What I was hinting at is, most people who call $X gets it wrong. Fund managers, analysts, talking heads and also retail investors.
So, don’t call out a price unless you’re happy to be ridiculed.
I posted this on another thread, I think it was Webjet, but most people (including all market participants, hedge funds, super funds, investment firms, banks, retail) are all thinking in the now, thinking ultra short term.
The market’s investing horizon is infinite. All valuation models, FCV models, DCF models, Black-Scholes models and its variations are all priced with a time horizon of infinity.
For most people who are unable to think exponentially, I think their calls will always be wrong.
Thinking in the now (or back then in March) will get us into a lot of trouble. Because the market thinks a million steps ahead, and then some more.
Which is why the market tends to overshoot to the downside as well as to the upside.
Have we overshot to the upside? I don’t know, I won’t call a definite number, but I’d wager that intrinsic value of this company is much higher than what it is now. And (yes, with my rear view mirror) most definitely above $7.20.
Which is why I maxed out my 125% allocation at $7.20, putting my money where my mouth is, so to speak.
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