Appropriate Market Cap???, page-2

(With disclaimer of it's not advice just discussion of one approach to valuation)

Valuing established old companies with years of data is a different ballgame to valuing a growing young company.

To have years of meaningful data on Ajx or similar we'd need to time travel forwards but alas we can only project.

We're not trying to scoop an established company that has become "cheap" were trying to get a return on investment at some point in the future.

So then the 18.5 million dollar question is what will the company be making in the future (t) years? And what is the valuation for *that*company.
This is the tricky bit. But models can be sexy and we can do as many as we like.

Maybe just 18m/year and anaemic growth after. Maybe a % growth per year that slows over time. Maybe we just do +$18m per year with 70% retention of customers or whatever else.

Then discount for risk of failure as conservative as you like,
Discount a bit more because might take longer then expected, discount more if dilution is expected.
Take the risk adjusted future price and assign the % rate of return you want in a "good" investment and reverse compound interest formula to get to your target 'fair' price today.