There has been no leaks from this Sale process... today nothing...

There has been no leaks from this Sale process... today nothing new from the finance journos since the Halt.

A well conducted Bidder process, there would have been some tight legal obligations.

It does point to Shell .....
Shell has 100% of P23 gas and 65% of the P41 block, it is in their interest to harvest the Gas and the Condensates (65% of P41); Buying an extra 35% in P23 ties up both Blocks, this keeps the Nexus team, continuing to develop the Project as to Plan; the other 2 (Japanese) Partners Mitsui & Oskaka provide access to the Market.
Apart from the obvious logic, my "hunch" is partly based on the veil of (Shell) secrecy; the lack of full detailed results from Libra can be interpreted only to benefit Shell, in relation to the Wider Crux value potential and therefore deflecting increased Bidder interest from others.
This in itself reinforces my best guess that Shell maybe the successful bidder; NXS will have negotiated a deal including P41 and P23 and maybe part of Echuca; and the balance of the process may be debt financing... Warrants.


Believing that there is genuine Buyer interest in the Crux Assets, OR Nexus the Company, then Nexus will achieve fair value for their Reserves, be it all the 122mboe ... or part of Crux; healthy competition between the Buyers should entice a bid somewhere near Fair value. The Price of Oil 2011, 2012 will be the guide to this end.
As per the current thread theme, my calculation of A$10 per BOE, is based on the lowest Broker valuation (Wilson closely followed by Bell) for barrels of oil equivalent.
It should mentioned there are few (valuation) uncertainties in this Asset Sale Process that may have a significant impact on the Sale; the MBOE figures that is being "promoted" for the De-risked AC/P23 Prospects......
* Auriga
* Caelum
* Plover
And of course the value that is being attributed to 15% of the Libra Field.

Based on the available evidence, I believe that about the $1.70 is what a Buyer will have to pay, per Share, for a Company take-over; that would probably satisfy "appropriate value".

And my personal preference for longer term value is the 35% sell down of Crux, netting A$300 Mil from Shell :) ..... I am not so sure of this point though, what value the Market will give .... "stab in the dark" +35 cents short term.

With Crux FID and Longtom producing .. re-ratings not far away. Another stab in the dark ..$1 x July 09.


Bit of a ramble to help pass the time.. about 12 hours time and we will all be experts,

Lets hope for lots of GOOD LUCK...
SharpE

DYOR!