https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf My...

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

My interpretation of the below is:

• EIA expect WTI to be around $61 in 2019, and $58 in 2020​
• Supply is clearly drying up - US experienced 10 million barrel decline in supplies for 3 weeks for the first time since 2007, and OECD inventories are below their 5 year average! Lets hope there is another 10 million draw tonight!​
• Demand appears to be increasing (and to this extent the IMF has increased its growth forecast for China https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/10/imf...n-policy-support-trade-outlook.html)[/BCOLOR]​
  
  

We have declining supply, and a case for increasing demand - I think this makes a strong case for further upside for oil. This is further evidenced by the increasing number of call options than put options


"Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $66 per barrel (b) in March, up $2/b from February 2019. Brent prices for the first quarter of 2019 averaged $63/b, which is $4/b lower than the same period in 2018. Despite lower crude oil prices than last year, Brent prices in March were $9/b higher than in December 2018, marking the largest December-toMarch price increase since December 2011 to March 2012. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $65/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020, compared with an average of $71/b in 2018. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $8/b lower than Brent prices in the first half of 2019 before the discount gradually falls to $4/b in late-2019 and through 2020."

"Economic indicators have recently sent mixed signals, increasing uncertainty regarding the future direction of oil prices. Recent manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in several European countries are showing continued contraction in their manufacturing sectors. In the United States, the Treasury yield curve inverted in March for the first time since 2007, a phenomenon that indicates a combination of tight monetary policy, investment risk aversion, and lower long-term economic growth expectations. However, manufacturing PMI surveys in the United States and China increased in March, and the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated it is unlikely to increase interest rates for the remainder of 2019, all factors that could signify a reversal of some of the negative economic indicators and support economic growth, and consequently crude oil prices. "

"EIA estimates that global liquid fuels inventories declined by 0.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in March 2019 and by 0.5 million b/d for the first quarter of 2019, which would be the first quarterly stock draw since fourth-quarter 2017. High compliance among a number of OPEC and non-OPEC countries subject to voluntary oil production reductions has contributed to falling petroleum inventories in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in OPEC, produced 9.85 million b/d in March, down by almost 0.9 million b/d from October. OECD petroleum inventories are now lower than the five year (2014–18) average, which is considered a key metric among market participants for assessing global oil balances"

" U.S. petroleum inventories declined by more than 10 million barrels per week three times in the first quarter of 2019—including two consecutive weeks in March—the most weekly declines of more than 10 million barrels for the first quarter of any year since 2007."