AEV 16.7% 0.5¢ avenira limited

april - june 2011

  1. 599 Posts.
    Wonarah Work review:

    1. Metallurgy - Main Zone Test work: 2nd Quarter 2011
    2. Financing - 2nd Quarter 2011
    3. JDC Test work - 2nd Quarter 2011

    Charts:
    I identified a strong accumulation patterns. When the runs you will see ahuge volume turnover, at around 3.5 - 10m. When the SP falls it goes down in small volumes, 0.5 - 2.5m.

    Media:
    1. May 26th, 2010 - NT News. Minemakers business development and marketing general manager Mike Erwin said talks with Chinese businesses in Nanjing had shown they were keen to jump on board".

    2. July 26th, 2010 - NT News. NT Government Matchmaker Skills Pay Off, confirmed strong interest from China, NT Government supportive, Resource Minister Kon Vatskalis commented "MOU between Minemakers and Verte as a strategic investor, could represent the largest Chinese investment into the NT"

    3. October - December 2010 Quarter - MAK update. Excellent progress in negotiations with potential Asian investors, fertiliser and infrastructure construction companies, and Sov Development Banks. Confidentiality agreements signed - therefore the lack of specific news to the media, shareholders etc. Note, MOU, investors to take 50% equity stake at premium to SP, hence it is probably desirable for the SP to not shoot through the roof prior to finance finalisation where possible.

    4. 13th January 2011 - Intersuisse update. MAK has been in positive discussions with Asian investors on this ambitious proposal. Working to an investment decision by the end of the second quarter and is in discussion with potential investors that have funds and understands the fertiliser business.

    5. 28th February 2011 - MAK announcement. Native Title signed. All mining permitting cleared, project development ready to go once funding received.

    6. February / March 2011 - Strategic Investors to conduct due diligence (DD) at Wonarah. Why do companies conduct DD? This is often conducted before an acquisition, before a signing of a contract etc. In our case, the potential investors will evaluate MAK prior to the signing of the financing agreement. This is positive given our project economics, political stability (no war), feasibility and excellent IRR's.

    7. March 25th 2011 - Management issued themselves a huge chunk of options at $0.74. A little disappointed, I misunderstood the 147% premium to SP, initially thought it would be exercisable around $1.20+ for a little more kick. Oh well! Management cashed up in stocks, loaded up on options ready for the F-Day.

    8. Coming soon... We wait for more news... Financing before end of June 2011?

    Summary:
    Meet Chinese in Nanjing --> Chinese interest --> MOU signed facilitated by VERTE --> Confidentiality agreements signed --> Christmas holidays --> Chinese New Year holidays (long holiday) --> Chinese conduct's DD --> (SP $1.00 plus)

    I see progression, rather timely for a multimillion dollar deal in the middle of nowhere. Will be an excellent opportunity to load up again if SP retreats within the $0.37-$0.45 range as before. Hence my 'BUY' sentiment.

    LM

 
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