APT 0.00% $66.47 afterpay limited

Ummmmm.... can't believe the instos are buying this crock? A...

  1. 82 Posts.
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    Ummmmm.... can't believe the instos are buying this crock? A capital raise presentation with financial information that's as carefully curated as their marketing material.

    Let me unpack this a bit. APT love to quote their own financial metric - Underlying Sales. Underlying sales does not equal INCOME.
    Reported APT half year INCOME to Dec 19 was $220.3M on "underlying sales" of $4.8Bn. The half year "underlying sales" of $4.8Bn delivered a LOSS of $35.8M and EBITDA of $6.8M.

    So, they now have "underlying sales" of $11Bn for FY20 as reported - ie around $6Bn for 2nd half of FY2020. That's around 25% growth over the past 6 months in "underlying sales". But is this level of underlying sales actually delivering a profit or a loss? You'd think this might be something that investors would be interested in knowing before they put some of their hard earned cash into the business. What exactly is the loss for FY20? If it was in the data released today and I didn't see it - please post.

    Ok - I know it's a platform and APT maniacs out there don't care about the losses. It's all about the growth (usually income not "underlying sales" - but lets roll with it) Plenty of great companies had years of losses before becoming cash machines. But none of Facebook, Amazon or Google ever traded at these stratospheric valuations. EBITDA for APT for FY20 is forecast to be a tiny $20-25M. That means APT are trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 700 times (roughly). Facebook and Google trade on EV/EBITDA of 18 and 17 respectively and at their absolute peak Facebook traded at 74 times and Google at 21 times. Amazon was never higher than 51 times EV/EBITDA and currently trades on 38 times. Just sayin - the APT valuation is seriously out of the ballpark of any comparable growth company.

    You can't really blame the company for raising cash and the founders selling down while the going's good. Anyway will be interested if you APT maniacs out there will be participating in the cap raise?
 
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