APT - chart only, page-57

I usually hate catching falling knives, I know to be extremely wary. In no way do I think this one is safe, I may get my hand sliced, but it fell for a very specific and easily understandable reason; an article which came out late in the day and caused panic, not leaving people time to think about it calmly, but putting people into a position of panic selling. I'm not saying it was deliberate as other people are, but even if it was just coincidental timing, the effect is the same as if it had been perfectly designed to suit the shorters, trigger stop losses, cause a panic and drop the price as quickly as possible without leaving time for a recovery.

My guess was that overnight, people would have time to calmly look at it and think about it, and react more rationally tomorrow. Since nothing has actually happened and it was just some opinionated news article, I guessed that there should be a recovery tomorrow, so it was a good entry (reentry for me) point.

When thinking about scary, dangerous, falling knives, I usually think about longer term trends rather than knee-jerk panic reactions starting at 3pm. Most people (like me) wouldn't have heard about it for at least 10-20 minutes, leaving only minutes before the end of the day, and most people get into at least somewhat of a frazzle under pressure like that. The market usually overreacts, and this seemed like the perfect way to get it to do so. There was a good amount of buyers stepping in, and in a frantic situation with no time to properly analyse things, people are more prone to selling than buying, which bodes well for tomorrow.