APT Chart, page-1896

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thebarry111

4,682 Posts.

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21/06/20

18:39

Post #: 45354509
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Originally posted by Goodfella58: ↑

While your post makes a lot of sense I think we simply differ on the business plan aspect.IMHO the Zip business plan is more sustainable than the APT strategy, with ZIP appealing to a more creditworthy and sustainable customer base, while APT credit checks would not even exclude the Missouri Looters.In my opinion they are massively underdeclaring bad debts and can only get away with it if growth is exponential as they can offset prior period bad debts against a doubling receivables book.Zip are very transparent on this metric and are declaring plus 2 percent while APT who do not do credit checks are portraying it as nett 40 basis points from memory.Its marketing 101 that anything that is free or easy to obtain has little or no value hence APT having four million registered users in USA who have never transacted.APT have to continuously recruit new customers while ZIP product having been harder to obtain and a revolving facility has more stickiness.APT appeals to a cohort in general who can I'll afford the additional purchases and if you read the ASIC submissions to the FinTech commitee their customers are experiencing increasing levels of financial stress.Again marketing 101 it takes ten good reviews to overcome one negative reviews and with a reported 67 percent of BNPL in financial stress the user curve is now starting to peak and rollover in ANZ.i think you will find that APT customers account for the majority of that 67% hence APT frantic submissions against legislation.Simple maths suggests that with 1 billion raised from capital markets and $400 million from merchant revenue less existing receivables book (debt cancels cash roughly) .then customer acquisition and servicing is costing in excess of $60 per active user.With a declared NTM of 1.2% ( I think it's a fraction of this if bad debt was transparent ) on an average transaction of $153 it takes a significant amount of transactions to break even.i don't buy into 2017 cohorts transactions of 23 Times per annum or one per fortnight as you may as well pay cash as after week 7 you are continuously paying 100 percent of the accumulated transactions.Even millennials are not that stupid

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Yeah, I question the bad debt numbers. It's the elephant in the room here.

The risk here is massively skewed to the downside, happy to hold some at these levels to let ride but no way would i be adding to the holding.

APT Price at posting: $58.69 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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