Valuation wise, no doubt APT is way off reality with 7.5x of FY21 sales (APT's valuation is based on Price/Sales or EV/Sales, but the big guys are so established and diversified that they are priced in P/E). With so much profit in the pocket, one bad news APT share price will be sent back to reality with profit taking, short-selling in sight from hedge funds and etc.
More so, APT's current valuation implies perfect execution in the U.S., in which APT is playing the game on Paypal's turf. Please don't joke about APT undercutting fees to compete with Paypal... Paypal makes 1.6 billion in profit each year, it has all the financial resources and existing infrastructure to penetrate the market, and is essentially having the benefit of the entire e-commerce eco-system of Google.
What's next? Amazon sees that paypal is entering consumer finance, then Amazon will enter as well.
Investors are already questioning valuation thus limiting upside potential, then you have PayPal and potentially Amazon entering this segment as well. Without needing much guess work, I think there is just more downside risk than upside.
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