Cross posted from the Day-Trader Forum, 'cuz I thought it might...

Cross posted from the Day-Trader Forum, 'cuz I thought it might be of interest to longs here on APX.

APX: Trading APX tomorrow might get tricky. I expect Ausiebulls will flag a BUY overrnight BUT it is now just over the target from the wedge breakout and it is roughly sitting at the resistance point of the corresponding support in the previous down run, so while it should get to circa 117 on the intraday breakout, it might struggle to get higher, and if it turns around now it should start wave 2 of an EW wave pattern which has a target of circa 95.6. Now we had no double bottom leading into this wave 1 so it may all be a false break yet. It needs to turn on the retrace at between the 61% and 78% fibs. Assuming it does all this I get the following predicted wave pattern (red rays are sell prices and green are buy prices): (Timing is not being modelled; only price targets.) Note the RSI also.



Note: Buy sentiment is a long term view, short term I am expecting a retrace soonish, but I will be holding and not holding throughout as I day-trade it. Today I traded out at the end of the day because of this chart, but I may come back in tomorrow if it looks like it will complete the run to 117 or higher. Obviously a long doesn't care about the retraces if it is expected to rise after. Note my warning about the lack of a double bottom leading into this wave 1 guess. I would prefer a double bottom, which this pattern may easilly become, in which case the retrace would be around 100%. So I'd rate this forecast as having maybe a 60% probability of being right.