I too am happy to make a call on who's likely and who isn't. For...

I too am happy to make a call on who's likely and who isn't. For what it's worth.

Disclosure: Of the below, I only hold shares in ARU.


IN AUSTRALIA

Likely

• ARU - top of the list. Further strengthened by last week's announcement. ARU's debt-led strategy is robust. But the equity remains. This should be the new MD's single short-term focus, but can he deliver (hence my "Hold" sentiment)?
• ILU - I'm reliably told they face very real ongoing and massive technical challenges, courtesy of not having the lengthy history of rare earth process development cos. like ARU have. But they have money, though not an endless supply.

Not impossible

• HAS - economics are challenging and operational life too short, so needs China's "help"
• VHM - the opposite to HAS, they need to pivot away from China. Location in Victoria doesn't help.

Very Unlikely

• ASM - too costly to finance, too complex to operate. It's why they moved to a less costly Korean metallization focus.
• The plethora of clay projects. But seriously, who cares? ARU will be well in production by then.

Smoky

• WA1. But niobium's their main game, which presents its own set of supply chain challenges.

ELSEWHERE

Likely, but only with China's "help"

• PEK
• A couple of the recent Brazilian clay projects
• Some of the monazite-bearing mineral sands producers

Not impossible, but only with China's "help"

• LIN

Anyone I haven't mentioned in the above has zero chance IMO.