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Alway

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19/07/24

09:13

Post #: 74822812
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Originally posted by chokdee: ↑

Good morning Alway. Well I would suggest the board has done a great deal lately. In what has been a massive shift that began with removal of ECE and arrival of HP and "other" Insto's in late 22 and early 23. Significant events (Aus Gov - Canadian, Korean, German Govs - financing and loan guarantees closure recently is a culmination of 19 months full reset to supply the forementioned critical RE supply ex China. If at it appears all financing closes inclusive of equity in next 3 months - that is a monumental achievement over 20 months and clearly demonstrates Nolan's development importance over other potentials - for a whole host of reasons. We are moving at far greater pace than say ILU as a comparison/example and have achieved much more.

The short position was appearing a trend as it reduced half a % over two weeks. The moment I called it - it went up however only a few days which is not a trend and yesterday saw a minor fall. The debt structure has been well advised and now all but confirmed with key announcements the short position remains at near highs - for now. Perhaps they are awaiting the equity component - for which they will be partaking and therefor it is in their best interest to keep the pressure on. When equity is confirmed and closed (some participants we will be advised others will remain hidden in undisclosed entities) and they have finished filling their collective boots - coupled with full derisking of complete financial close they will wind back their positions and use their capacity to move the SP any direction - north would be a nice change. Perhaps the equity announcements with an awesome surprise - stage 2 plans delivery will see the beginning of directional change - both shorts and SP.
Lynas short position is increasing quiet some - solely on Beijing RE price manipulation - the same with PLS and others with current low lithium prices. We do not know our pricing structures - needless to say they are profitable and benefit all parties - no one providing finances and securing offtakes want ARU to fail - they want multi decade relationships and supply.

Plenty of upside risk will remain that shorts can use all the way to commissioning and ramping up production. Potential blowout in project timelines and CAPEX - the science/tech requirements are substantial (look at Mountain Pass for example - look at Lynas new Kal plant recently in which they had to fly many experienced Malaysian employees to progress commissioning). Debt paybacks - The relentless Beijing stifling of RE pricing although we clearly have 80% supply contracted with bottoms/caps in place that are win - win for all parties - that 20% spot is very important and IF as expected the supply deficits arrive at the paramount time when supply deficits are really arriving - that will be substantial along with any expansion - a second separation plant - processing third party concentrate - opportunistic taking out other quality concentrate only companies - whom I believe some will have no choice but to accept low ball takeover offers - along with MINHUB and other potential very high grade mineral sands concentrate supply. Growth will be a given.
Advantages over Lynas at the similar early stage are enormous - not saying we will ever catch them however ARU can be a high growth company in next decade and beyond - the first step (Nolan's) is the hardest - then anything is possible.

Some are here for the pips on FID etc. However if long as many are here - the next 5 years to full production promises some highly rewarding returns - not without challenges.

Have a great Friday and weekend all.

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The share price tells the story

ARU Price at posting: 18.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 16.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $394.2M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
16.0¢	16.5¢	15.8¢	$996.0K	6.220M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	52934	16.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
16.5¢	506415	13

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	52934	0.160
56	2641415	0.155
63	3522878	0.150
21	2021683	0.145
17	937284	0.140

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.165	506415	13
0.170	1123232	13
0.175	1760655	25
0.180	1984325	32
0.185	1153869	28

Last trade - 16.10pm 21/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

ARU (ASX) Chart

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