On the topic of REE pricing, these next few months should be...

On the topic of REE pricing, these next few months should be interesting.

First, in October the State Council reforms will commence. I've tried to get a grasp of the detail, of which there is unsurprisingly little. One takeaway is that there will be a clampdown on unauthorised suppliers. One estimate had that as 20% of the pre processing market in China. The logical effect being a reduction in supply.

Secondly, the biannual (sometimes they also do 3) state quota will be released. We have seen significant year-on-year increases for some time which has contributed to the oversupply in the market. Note that the last quota's year-on-year increase was proportionately less than the previous year's. Expect this downward trend to continue. The recent report on state owned companies (read via Nikkei Asia) suggests they're starting to buckle under the falling price / oversupply.

To summarise - a lift off the market bottom may soon occur, but it's a big maybe in this most opaque of markets.

Obviously, we haven't started building a mine yet so today's price is irrelevant. That being said, I consider that the Chinese spot price has significant influence on overall market sentiment and, in turn, the SP. The ex-China / ROW supply has some ways to go.

Have a great weekend all.