@madamswer I'm not so convinced. Export revenues have grown from...

@madamswer

I'm not so convinced.

Export revenues have grown from about $46.7m in the pcp, to about $56.2m in the H1 FY18 period. So that's $9.5m growth in revenue in the 6 months (versus pcp), representing very healthy 20% growth. Yes.

Of this $56.2m in exports, the bulk is contributed by exports to the US ($25.4m) and exports to the ME&Europe ($9.4m). These combined represent 62% of all exports.

Of the $9.5m in export growth, the US contributed $3.1m and ME&Europe contributed $2.5m. Thus the US contributed 33% to the growth, the ME&Europe contributed 27%, with the remaining 59% contributed by exports into other markets. Most of these exports into "other markets" will be included in the segment data designated as "Australia".

Unfortunately the segment data does not allow us to clearly determine the margins for all exports. But whilst the ME& Europe are demonstrating respectable margins (though still about two thirds of the consolidated group), the larger US segment is showing woeful margins. If the aggregate margin of all exports is closer to the US than it is to the ME&Europe, then those exports are going to come at a huge cost.

If consolidated margins have held up pretty well in the latest 6 month reporting period, I suspect it is more because domestic after-market revenues have grown at a solid 10% rate (versus pcp), thus contributing $12.4m to half year growth, and comprising over 50% of total growth. I'm still convinced that this (Australian after market) is the goose that lays the golden eggs.

ME&Europe may yet save the day. But this has still some way to go - and is not yet a sure thing (in my mind).

So I will not be paying tax, on a dividend that shall be retained by the business, on possibly costly OS expansion - at a time that the retained dividend buys me very few shares.