arbitrage, page-4

Hi Rager and Complex...a few more thoughts....

The brokers/inv banks are certainly holding enough stock to influence the outcome because 75% of eligible shares have to be voted in favour. I understand TLW holds around 4%, so I guess that means they need 74% of the equity. Seems a big ask to me, and the holdings of the significant shareholders will effectively block it. It is inconceivable that TLW went into this with their highest offer. There has been good news flow since, especially in Uganda, the jewel in the crown. So they should be more committed than ever.

No reason to sell yet, or to commit to how to vote. I am holding back my vote to see what happens right up to the last minute. Pressure will build on TLW as the vote gets closer and they will need nerves of steel to hold their line. I think they'll blink and come up with a final sweetner to get the deal over the line.

regards
DF