I agree that the GoG would not want this to go to arbitration at this stage. On face value, if the GoG flatly refused to complete the exploitation license process, GGG would certainly have a strong case.
But, the GoG is completing the exploitation application process. Will have to wait and see content of the GoG draft response to the application to have a better understanding of the situation IMO.
Arbitration or GoG finalising M/L The next chapter., page-2
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