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5.43%

43.5¢ far limited

Arbitration results tipping/crystal ball comp, page-22

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szaba_the_hut

13,739 Posts.

699

17/03/18

08:55

Post #: 31824229
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Originally posted by szaba_the_hut ↑

Only 7 months to run to the nominal deadline of June 2018 so lets turn uncertainty into an activity.

I thought I would pose a tipping competition and structure it with a probability rating - put your %probability and $ in the appropriate places in bold. Add your own scenario and your probability if you think there is a different outcome. Sum of probability must = 100%

1. JV Status Quo. Far unsuccessful at PE arbitration. 20%

2. SNE sale or Takeover that prematurely ends arbitration process. 68% $600M (SNE) $1B (WPL FAR T/O)

3. FAR victory at Arbitration with cash remedy from COP. 10% $50M

4. FAR victory at Arbitration with full PE reset and WPL exit. 2%

Expand

Given WPL recent cap raise the November guess has to be a decent chance although WPL only really need 25% of FAR to make it interesting and trigger a PE event in the current JV structure to scramble the egg a little more and perhaps take a board seat on FAR.

Given recent CNE update Cairn may join the party and sell part of their stake to WPL in a farm-down linked to operator transition in 2H.

FAR Price at posting: 7.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 43.5¢		Change -0.025(5.43%)		Mkt cap ! $40.19M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
46.0¢	46.5¢	43.5¢	$466.4K	1.032M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	48023	43.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
45.0¢	12465	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	48023	0.435
2	31704	0.430
1	50000	0.425
1	33894	0.410
2	150000	0.390

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.455	48982	2
0.460	25000	1
0.465	115925	8
0.470	63931	4
0.475	13000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 06/06/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last 45.0¢			Change -0.025 ( 2.17 %)
Open	High		Low	Volume
46.0¢	46.0¢		44.0¢	269859
Last updated 15.59pm 06/06/2024 ?

FAR (ASX) Chart