After a few days away in the country with no internet or other...

After a few days away in the country with no internet or other distractions, I sat down and took a look at Linc's Arck well reports that I highlighted last month. I can say it has answered some questions for me.
https://sarigbasis.pir.sa.gov.au/WebtopEw/ws/samref/sarig1/cat0/MSearch
Place search for well with well name, click on End of well Reports, down load, open PDF Well Report.

So the 3 oil exploration wells they drilled, the primary target formations did not exist at all. It wasn't as though a trap held water instead of oil/gas, or the trap once held oil/gas and it leaked. The complete primary target formation was mostly non-existent, with some formation tops out by more that 200m from prognosis, on a 1000m hole?

   On most occasions the Mt Toondina Formation and Stuart Range formations lined up as expected, but the drilling results of the lower Boorthanna Formation and Pre Permian formation showed that they are more complex and changeable than what the Geo's expected. I suspect that once this was released the plug was pulled on the rest of the drilling program.
  The two wells drilled by the mineral rig were targeted as Shale oil and appeared to hit their targets, resulting in the famous announcement.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-458.pdf
Reading Gustavson report, they state the potential for 125bil BOE held in conventional traps. All these prospective resources are located in the Pre-permian. This is the formation that the Geo's least understanding. I didn't understand why most references were Pre-permian rather than being a given specific name. Once again looking at the well reports, this per-Permian is continually changing or the experts have yet to define the exact source, as it is referred to as Devonian, Cambrian /Precambrian, Pre-Delamerian and Ordovician in different places. In the Williams Creek well, the Primary target was Cambrian. When drilled they never found the Cambran, but were in an undefined formation, ie in other words, they didn't know where they were. Now that is why you drill a hole, to learn what is there and then re-calibrate your seismic and understanding of the area. What I have trouble with is Gustavson gives 125bil BOE to this very little understood formation for conventional traps.

To move onto the non-conventional oil, the Stuart Range formation in pretty is well represented in all the wells drilled so far and have been tested for suitable source rock during the 1970/80's. Arck #1 basically confirmed this earlier work, and of course the big difference over 30 years, we now have the technology to extract any potential shale oil.
This early work returned good results on the Stuart Range shale but poor results in the lower Boorthanna and Pre-permian zones, though, it was found the lower zone were most likely to have more ideal cooking temperature.

Gustavson has estimated unconventional prospective resource as,
Stuart Range 13 bil BOE
Borthanna   12 bil BOE
Pre-Permian 207bil BOE
These are their best guesses.
   
So the Stuart Range, where there is good known organic rich shales, that has been found in several wells in the area. The only issue has it been cooked enough, and there are most likely places deeper in the Boorthanna trough that will fill the criteria.
The Boorthanna formation, is less reliably as it has not been found as expected in previously drilled holes. Plus there has not been consistent organic rich shales as per the Stuart Range, though any organic rich zones will more likely to have been cooked at sufficient temperature.

   Now comes the interesting part. The Pre-Permian, is estimated to hold the Holy Grail of 207 bil BOE. On the positive side this zone is most likely to have been well cooked and residing at similar depths to the some of the US shale plays. On the negative side, this is the area they have the least knowledge. To the point that there does not even seem an agreed name for these rocks. The formations tops repeatably do not conform to prognosis and they seem to change significantly over very short distances.
PB has beat up this drilling program with the near promise of flowing oil. To me initial success of this upcoming drilling program should be judged on the mere fact of the Boorthanna and Pre-Pemian formation tops coming in on prognosis and the Pre-Permian becomes consistent enough to attribute a specific name to these rocks. A bigger success will be if these lower formation are found to be organic rich, and then hopefully sufficiently cooked.
As for flowing oil? First find a trap with some traces oil, and I will be happy. As that would be a first for any holes drilled in the Arck basin to date and would indicate they are finally understanding the geology.
After reading many of these well reports, I can understand why any potential JV partners would have been resistant to putting too much money into the Arck until some of these important unknowns are clarified.
So once Linc confirms the Pre-Permian is continuous and consistent, contains organic rich shale and has been cooked sufficiently then I am sure some big players will be willing to come on board. The project will be de-risked enough to give the big money the opportunity to experiment with fraccing procedures and make use of the results.
In my opinion, Linc will not be making money by trucking oil out of the Arck, with Linc Oil as a logo. They will make their money by selling the play to big brother, they just need the correct bait to hook the big one, and that means knowing the geology a hell of a lot better than they do at the current time.