I see you have not been reading my comments for too long. lol. I have never been a big supporter of the Arck, and yes UCG has been the reason that I have held in. I do find it interesting that the market went wild with an uninformed newspaper headline of $20 trillion. I suppose it was eye catching, but I was surprised by the lack of investigation into the validity of the initial report.
It took me awhile to get around to it, but i finally dung into the report around September last year. I found 10% of the resources was suppose to be held in the Stuart Range, of which the Arck #1 well actually drilled into, 10% in the Boorthanna, of which the original drilling campaign found to be elusive to variable, but with no signs of oil, and the eldorado of 80% was suppose to be held in the Pre-Permian. I then discovered that the Pre-Permian had never been intercepted at depths capable of producing oil. All their numbers were taken from, offset wells from 200km away, in the Officer Basin, which was expected but not known to under lie the Arck Basin.
It is only now that Linc are drilling these Pre-Permian formations that the words, Officer Basin, unknown formations, never been drilled, are being mentioned. Finally the truth is being bought to the fore. It was always in the original desk top report, so they were not telling porkies, but I do not believe many people actually read it, even after I posted the link several times, and other posted on the other side. I never saw one question about the report.
Just to compare Eba #1 to the American shale wells. The Bakken wells are 10,000ft deep, with 10,000ft of lateral. That is 20000ft of drilling, or 6000m in metric. These wells are currently taking 20 days to drill. Eba #1, I realize is a wildcat, and therefore slower, but it has taken 70 plus days, with at least another 10 before they are off location and just to get to 2900m or about 10000ft. Even with good quality source rock, the reserves per hole would have to be massive to make thing economical at $100 oil. Don't even think about $50.
The short answer is, I have been holding out for the UCG. Which seems to be currently pushing against the tide as well. Oh Well!
LNC Price at posting:
99.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
