My proposed bet: mean September sea ice for the period of 2017-2022 will be higher than the September mean for the period 2007 – 2012.
Not surprisingly I got no response.
I also sent versions of that e-mail to other institutes, some having a chronic habit of sounding alarm when it comes to global sea ice. My e-mail:
Dear —–
I’ve read with great interest the latest AWI press release on global sea ice. www.awi.de/en/news/pressreleases/de3
One easily gets the impression the experts believe the Arctic sea ice trend will continue its downward trend over the coming years. This surprises me. Myself I think the Arctic will actually recover over the next decade or two. I’m convinced enough to bet $1000 on this. I believe that the average September sea extent for the years 2017 – 2022 will be greater than the mean September 2007-2012 sea ice extent.
Would you advise me against making such a bet? Would you bet? Surely the science can provide a probability here. Your short comment on this would be very much appreciated.
Kind regards
In summary, no one expressed any interest in accepting the above bet and not one even advised anyone to accept it. Result: From a science with a “97% consensus” and “99% certainty”, 0% of the scientists are ready to bet on it.
Three of the 4 scientists who did reply say it is not possible to predict the Arctic sea ice over the next 8 years (yet many scientists claim that predicting the Arctic 50, 100 or 200 years into the future is 99% slam dunk?).
Of course we can understand scientists’ reluctance to bet on Arctic sea ice. But on the other hand why are so many of these scientists insisting that the rest of us bet our modern prosperity on their models being right (when obviously they themselves don’t even trust them 8 years out)?
It all smacks of a sham to me.
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