Hi
@ozpolarbear
Great post
First of all, there's never been a time that I didn't like what you've posted. Yes I like property, but i also like to read up on things, even if it's negative.
I wouldn't say that I'm a property bull.
But I do love property and I've made good coin over the last 18 years.
Especially from 1997 to 2010.
I still am cautious with every investment, especially now with property.
IMO I believe that on average Australian homes are 40% over priced.
Yep your right the higher they keep rising, the more painful it be in the longer term.
Now back in 1998 roughly, the average house was 4.5 times the annual income.
Today if I'm not wrong, the average house price is about 11 times the annual income.
It can't forever keep climbing I know.
When I bought my first house in 1998 it cost 150k.
10 years later I sold it for 520k.
I was pretty happy with that. In 10 years that's about 350%.
So the question I ask my self, if I had that property and sold it in 2018, does this mean I'll make 700% selling the house for 1,000,000?
For me that can't happen.
Because that will mean houses will be on average about 15 time the annual average income.
There will be very little buyers if any.
In saying all this, I'm actually selling my house that I live in. I know I'm gonna make a killing.
Then I'll spend half on a small unit, leave the other half in cash and be ready to pounce once and if we have a property burst, which is overdue IMO.
Houses continuing to rise will scare buyers away.
IMO if interest rates increase by an additional 1.5 percent over the next say 12 months, then that will really shake the market.
As with gold.
I bought NCM at 11.80.
A friend of mine said everyone that he knows that's invested in gold, neither has lost money.
When markets are down, everyone turns to gold.
Your post and analysis on gold is great.
I kept a copy because I want to read over it a few times.
I want to learn more about gold as I'm new to this commodity just as I am with graphite.
My bread and butter have always been property and the 4 big banks.
