Let’s be clear from the start: I don’t think they’re Lynas’s...

Let’s be clear from the start: I don’t think they’re Lynas’s salvation. I’ve never claimed that.

There’s been so much random noise on the subject I thought it was time to gather the evidence that supports my view and invite others to provide evidence that points to different conclusions.

My very simplified view is:

1.All vehicles use some PM and the amount tends to increase with degree of electrification and

2.In the transition to electric vehicles intermediate tech are likely to be useful transition steps while issues with “pure” BEVs are being sorted out and

3.a large number of partially electrified vehicles may generate as much or more demand for Lynas NdPr than a small number of BEVs.

There’s a heap of good info out there but I intend to just select a few sources that make my points; alternative evidence or interpretation welcome.

Power Sources:

Every car leaves home with some mix of petrol (diesel LPG) and charged batteries to power it.

The tesla S85 (see scary battery university link at the end, table 3 and the preceding discussion) packs a huge battery both in power stored 90kwh and weight 540kg (over a half ton and a quarter of the vehicle’s weight).

Petrol (gasoline) has an energy density of 46 mj/kg meaning (after some arithmetic) 70kg of petrol stores as much energy as the Prius battery.

(And the battery doesn’t get lighter as you drive).

In contrast the Prius has about 80kg of batteries (plus a fuel tank).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius_Plug-in_Hybrid

Cost is also a big drawback for now but we all expect dramatic improvements on all fronts over the next decade or 2. The grid will surely become greener too, so BEVs won’t have to “fill up” from coal power stations.

Motors:

Adamas looked at average traction motor power for BEVs:

“By traction motor type, … the sales-weighted average permanent magnet synchronous motor had a power of 101.1 kW …” (They cover induction motors too.)

https://www.adamasintel.com/average-bev-motor-december-2019/

It’s hard to find comparison info for 48v mild hybrid PM motors but here’s one good example:

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/01/20200114-aeristech.html

They’re no bunnies having provided similar tech to the VW Golf. (See the article for earlier applications and the performance advantages achieved.)

This is 20% of the typical BEV’s power and it seems reasonable to assume they use 20% of the PM.

So roughly, in terms of using NdPr, 5x 48v mild hybrids = 1x BEV

and something less than 5 (say 3 as a guess) for hybrids, ignoring other PMs in the vehicles which would lower those ratios further.

Markets:

There are any number of predictions for the xEV market going forward, none I know of better researched than McKinsey’s (link below). However the detail is sometimes excruciating and the following summarises much of the outlook they predict for mild hybrids.

https://www.automotiveworld.com/articles/mild-hybrids-a-multi-billion-euro-growth-opportunity-alongside-e-mobility/

Figure 4 in particular predicts sales of ICE, mild and other hybrids in Europe, China and the US. Have a good look.

How does this influence NdPr demand to motor vehicles?? Well, for example,

In the US base case they predict, in 2030, 46% MHEV, 12% other hybrids and 11% BEV (all up from negligible numbers in 2025).

Using the BEV-equivalent battery usage the NdPr-usage ratios would be: 46/5: 12/3: 11 or 38%, 17% and 45% respectively. Similarly in 2025, we hit “peak MHEV” in Europe and China. For China the corresponding 2025 usage ratios (base case) are 32%, 11% and 57%.

However back of the envelope these numbers may be, they make a strong argument that MHEV sales will be a substantial part of the NdPr market for some time to come. Less important than BEV perhaps, but probably more than other hybrid architectures combined.

Battery Uni Link:

https://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/electric_vehicle_ev?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=203d095cd12636876c0909f29fd23b0429d8811d-1609293385-0-AYVfj95m4R7aMXCRHamtlTJ1_B0B3kBDio_l9-6BbmrhMLN7RNgDkbB8HyAMTmSv7gX9C6PQ_SeFfg4HCRZLZozj4vBSq8E3yNgxSz6rihDhtau36cXGm6l7TsH6JIBJbPJ3NudXFdRABjelOlEE0yqQcZhXy_Iev0sbrlt8Y0cR93mr0aqU1Zr-2YskLVZaMQjj87c31L3_SdZrwsZ5AWid8O-pzKk7nvNE1jIjnJoV4adhZ86QwEoraPSKkWse2DugRR4_j7IH9AmL5g8leJ6QGyePmhhKQ8yZ_ckts12ab8LNKhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius_Plug-in_HybridMPqOTB5A7dNjTy6kOuoR4VFEyDswCESBcTDJ0bXZQsKoQlq1FnbdZnm0cep

McKinsey Report Link

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Automotive%20and%20Assembly/Our%20Insights/Reboost%20A%20comprehensive%20view%20on%20the%20changing%20powertrain%20component%20market%20and%20how%20suppliers%20can%20succeed/Reboost-a-comprehensive-view.pdf