PDN 1.21% $13.01 paladin energy ltd

are my assumptions wrong

  1. 24 Posts.
    i read on here plenty of calculations but i dont get it.
    my assumptions
    1/ 11/12 fin year 8.3 m pounds
    2/ cash at june 30 117.4 m
    3/ draw down of $135m cash from the debt facility
    4/ so total cash on hand $252.4m
    5/ debt due $40 m so wont need to be refinanced cash now reduced to $212m
    6/total debt $630m + $135m = $765 @ 8.6% = $65.79m interest
    7/ corporate costs $40m
    8/ royalities $15m
    9/ 8.3 m p split say 50% spot and 50 long term
    10/ spot US$ 54.00/p long term $62.00/p
    11/4.15 m @ $54 = $224.1m
    12/4.15mp @ $62.00 = $257.3m say total rev = $481.4m
    13/ costs @ $35/p = $290.5

    so

    total revenue $481.4m

    mining costs @ $35/p $290.5
    corporate cost $ 40.0
    royalities $ 15.0
    interest $ 65.8
    total costs $411.3

    $ 70.1

    depreciation $ 36.0

    profit before tax $ 34.1

    tax at 30% $ 10.23

    profit after tax $ 23.87



    Cash than = $212.0 m
    profit $ 23.87
    depreciation$ 36.0


    Total cash end of 11/12 fin year $$271.87

    my assumptions are that pdn still makes a profit at these low levels and can afford to pay its debts


    please let me know your ideas
 
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