are origin shares worth for long term , page-2

I've been holding Origin for 2-3 years and have ridden some lows and recent strength above $14.
Once the Mid 2015 date approaches when the new LNG plant opens and continues to grow, my estimate is $20-25 / share + gradual dividend increase until 2018.

Compare
CTX - share price is $22 yet dividend 34c.
ORG - share price is $14 yet dividend 50c.
CTX Long term vision is paying off and price has factored this in. CTX has less debt but Origin will have better capacity to pay off debt once LNG plant operational. CT have less shares on issue but ORG just has been more stable with dividends and I think the future is brighter for gas.

ORG have been very predictable and have hit predictions (+ve or -ve) since I have followed - and remained profitable always. CTX perhaps have been up and down with profit / loss more but seem to have managed a higher price. I think Origin has suffered from the belief its only a electricity provider with no chance of growth and also has been suffering negative press over electricity price regulation which has affected the bottom line more than proportionately.

I compare stocks on dividend size and reliability, capitalization, debt, openness of announcements, long term vision, business leadership, diversification strategy away from power supplier to energy and power supplier. Long term gas prices are hinting at increasing. I'm hoping ORG dividend increases to over 80c per annum. One would expect CTX dividend to increase but perhaps not be reflected in as a significant share price rise as I'm expecting for ORG. In effect I'm hoping ORG gets a significant share price increase and dividend increase. I think CTX won't get much share price increase as future profits seem factored in to the price.

Origin have been hit by govt power market regulation and managed to keep on posting profits but have diversified to minimize this impact. Of course all this is my opinion only but I do agree with the long term vision of the ORG company and hence am in for the long term. I think CTX over priced for what you get back, but a similarly structured company!

Longer Term I'm holding :
SXY - $100M cash in the bank, no debt, cooper basin oil producer. No dividend yet, but I think if they hit on their promises which so far they have done, then SXY should jump in price within 1-2 years. Again long term.

Re: Energy stocks in general - the world needs more and more energy. I think you have to pick the right stock, but even electric cars need a power station to provide energy to charge. ORG, STO, CTX, SXY all good long term, but picking a winner is opinion and luck maximized by research. But still luck...