Are shorts closing, page-39

Hilarious, no. But fortunately better than you portray. You sound as if you’d be satisfied with one “non-recovery” out of four, and as if you actually see statistical meaning in a sample of four.

Fortunately there’s been (last I heard) only one death so far outside of China, and minimal transmission occurring outside of China. But this is due to unprecedented quarantine and other precautionary measures. This will come at an enormous economic cost. Commodity prices, tourism, luxury food exports etc.

I don’t think you appreciate the significance of pandemics. This one is going to be very costly in terms of global economics to stamp out, and particularly for China. I doubt quarantine measures have peaked, or that they will be greatly relaxed until well into March at earliest, but the measures seem to be having some effect with daily new case numbers appearing to stabilise at around 2,000. Let’s hope they are indeed stabilising.

I don’t believe anyone believes this is the new black plaque, nor do I believe it has any effect on the long term intrinsic value of CVN. However it’s certainly a very serious event, with serious short term economic impact, and probably long term impact on global integration with and dependence on China. You can’t expect it not to effect share prices.

All my opinion of course, I could be wrong, this could yet go global.

EL