Are the Debt Holders Selling?

Hi Guys

Like a lot of you I am red here and its only natural to start to question or wonder really whats going on? I've even started looking at the company all over again and re-researching bits and pieces to give myself some comfort.

Fortunately I have a full Bloomberg terminal for my day job in FX/Rates structuring. This morning I have been looking at the most up to date data on our 'substantial holders'.

The below table has been quickly pulled from Bloomberg. What I think is very interesting (and many of you no doubt already know this but I figured worth sharing) is that there are only two 'substantial holders' remaining vs the 5 listed in the 2016 Annual Report - (please correct me if I am wrong here guys too)

What does that mean? It means that there are only two existing shareholders that must (according to ASX listing rules) disclose changes to their holding of +/- 1%.

When there is 9.2bio shares out a 1% change is equal to 92mio shares. In theory WAMCO and Bain our two largest holders can net sell/buy up to ~90mio at any time without having to disclose anything to the market.

Who cares you say? Well I think its pretty important to remember that clearly WAMCO/Bain our biggest holders aren't the ones dumping the stock and they aren't the ones driving this thing down (at least not selling more than ~90mio each) so I would argue they still believe the AGO story - its not like they haven't had chances to sell down more of their holdings over the last 6 months.

Is AGO making 10-15% less money today when compared to what they were making yesterday? No. IO was down 0.5% overnight. So a 10-15% fall today is unjustified in my opinion and is simply short termers stopping out.

In my opinion - if you have an investment horizon of more than 5 minutes I would stress you to think carefully before stopping out of longs here. Remember there's still plenty of room in the IO price for AGO to continue making money - 62% can go from $75 to $50 (another 50% drop from here) and AGO can still cover full-cash costs...

No doubt the trolls will be out after a post like this - I look forward to that.

GLTAH

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
0	Entity	No of Shares	As at date	% Out
1	Legg Mason/Western Asset Management	1,189,461,604	16/03/2017	12.8%
2	Bain Credit Credit	569,677,974	27/02/2017	6.2%
3	John Hancock	447,590,796	30/09/2016	4.8%
4	Mcaleese Inv	260,000,000	6/05/2016	2.8%
5	Caterpillar Finanical Aust	226,527,386	30/09/2016	2.4%
6	Ice Global Credit Clo	158,567,170	30/09/2016	1.7%
7	Meng Luo	125,450,000	30/09/2016	1.7%
8	Future Fund	117,321,165	30/09/2016	1.4%
9	Fedotov Benjamin	101,005,259	30/09/2016	1.3%
10	Bt Portfolio Services	100,000,000	30/09/2016	1.1%
11	CQS Asset Management LTD	92,392,768	31/01/2017	1.1%
12	Benefit Street Partners	90,610,954	30/09/2016	1.0%
13	IMC Resources Pty Ltd	66,749,653	24/07/2015	1.0%
14	Marathon Clo Ltd	66,657,850	1/03/2017	0.7%
15	Atlas Iron LTD	60,320,264	15/11/2016	0.7%
16	Avery Street Clo	52,231,879	1/12/2016	0.7%
17	Westpac Banking	48,045,230	17/10/2014	0.6%
18	Paradice Investment Mgmt Pty Ltd	44,773,093	8/01/2014	0.5%