KGL 4.55% 10.5¢ kgl resources limited

There still appears to be plenty of investors concerned about...

  1. 13,808 Posts.
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    There still appears to be plenty of investors concerned about potential further delays for Andash.
    I agree there is good reason to be concerned about such an outcome as far as the short term share price is concerned.
    However I do not stress over it for the following reasons.

    In this interview, Jim Rickards expects gold to potentially go well past $2000 on escalation of the situation with Iran.
    He also believes a war with Iran could lead to higher stock markets but also discusses the likelihood of $1900-2000 gold this quarter-May regardless of Iran.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Broadcast.html


    I strongly believe that fundamentals suggest much higher sustainable gold prices.
    This quarter-May would be very good timing for Burnakura.
    For those that think this stock is just about Andash, think again.
    Yes any further delays will be negative for the share price short term, but developments have been positive lately, not negative.

    At $2000 gold Burnakura should justify around 20-25c just at the start up CIL rate plus heap leach operation on my numbers.
    For those not familiar with the heap leach, a likely 750,000 tpa processing rate will take total processing (CIL plus heap leach) up to 1mill tpa.
    Low risk scenario-without Andash and with gold at $2,000, we will be heavily cashed up with more than enough cash to double CIL capacity to 500,000tpa and accelerate exploration at Jervois which looks likely to overtake Andash in size and potentially NPV.
    We will be close to production (June this year) and strongly cash flow positive with no debt.
    I am eager to see the FS results for Burn to compare to my numbers, but for now, I work on the following estimates if I assume $2000 gold, 250,000tpa CIL and 750,000tpa heap leach.
    Tax for the first 2-3 years is likely to be negligible thanks to carried forward losses, so cashflow in the first two years, is likely to be unaffected by tax.
    I assume 12 mill for admin exploration and sustaining capex, which leaves the following net cash flows.
    CIL only (probably first 6 months of operation), $16.5mill/yr.
    CIL plus heap leach, $34mill/yr
    CIL doubled to 500Ktpa plus heap leach, $53 mill/yr dropping to $38mill/yr once tax kicks in at the full rate.

    So not only is Burnakura potentially worth around 25-30c at $2,000 gold but the cash flow over two years will go a long way to providing perhaps half or more than half the required capital for Jervois.
    With Burnakura cash flow and the anticipated cashflow from Jervois, bank funding of the other 50% capital should be easy enough.

    Obviously my numbers above are based on $2000 gold and we are not there yet, but enough of the better expert minds out there expect much better than $2000, and I expect the same.
    The above also depends on the accuracy of my cash cost assumptions, but I am comfortable that I may be conservative there.
    The 25-30c also completely ignores any value for Jervois which is of course the bigger more valuable project, and ignores Gabanintha with its excellent exploration upside and ignores any valuation for Andash.



 
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