are we already surpassing firawa?

I posted this on iii forum, but would be interested in your views.

Ive gone back through the numbers so far for Bir En Nar and compared them to the Firawa result. On paper Bir En Nar is making Firawa look like a comparative tiddler.

What we know from Bir En Nar:

INITIAL DRILL, Dec 2007

Fortes aim was to drill 40 holes of approximately 100m each for 4,000m in total. Drilling program to follow up previously reported sampling results of up to 9,500ppm Uranium.

March 2008 Update: 10 best results (below) from the 38 samples (3 of the 41 holes could not be logged). 26 of the 38 hole campaign returned radiometric logging in excess of 1000 parts per million equivalent U308, including the top ten -


0.70m @ 5,750ppm U
1.00m @ 7,180ppm U
2.35m @ 11,250ppm U
1.55m @ 5,060ppm U
1.55m @ 18,280ppm U
5.35m @ 9,310ppm U
2.90m @ 6,100ppm U
0.95m @ 5,500ppm U
0.30m @ 5,100ppm U
0.35m @ 8,140ppm U


FOLLOW UP DRILL, Sep 2009

Approximately 60 holes of diamond core drilling of up to 180m in length for 6,000m in total.

Feb 2010: Best results from the 8/50 samples so far -

16m @ 1,617ppm U incl. 8m @ 2,470ppm U
5m @ 2,326ppm U incl. 1m @ 4,890ppm U
4m @ 1,711ppm U incl. 1m @ 4,410ppm U
5m @ 1,038ppm U incl. 1m @ 1,870ppm U


BIR EN NAR TOTAL SO FAR -

So in total, we have drilled 10,000m and 88 holes.
We have established grades at 46 out of the 88 samples.
66% of samples are returning grades in excess of 1000ppm.
25% of samples are returning grades in excess of 4000ppm.

FIRAWA COMPARISON -

Firawa drill was conducted over 5,800m and 56 holes.
So its only around 60% of the extent of Bir En Nar.
Of these 56 holes, only 12.5% returned grades in excess of 1000ppm (7/56)
Compare that to a whopping 66% so far at Bir En Nar.
And none delivered more than 1,545ppm.
Remember, these results were described as excellent.
And it led to 11.6Mlbs being established in the JORC, with the expectation that it is a near certainty to double due to density revision and further drilling.


CONCLUSION

Surely Bir En Nar JORC looks on track to trounce Firawa. And the Firawa maiden result of 11.6Mlbs exceeded Hanson Westhouses expectations.

While all the results are yet to come in, and there are other variables such as density and recoverability factors, Bir En Nar looks primed to be closer to the top end of 20-25Mlbs than the low-end expectation of 10Mlbs. Surely 10Mlbs+ is already comfortably in the bag on the 46/88 known samples?

Remember the Matrix note on Bir En Nar that speculated:

"The company is about to start drilling at its other high priority project, Bir En Nar in Mauritania, a program which is designed to produce a JORC-compliant
resource by the end of this year. Preliminary drilling here has returned very high grades (up to 18,000ppm) over considerable strike lengths, and we regard another 20Mlbs here as HIGHLY PROBABLE. Forte Energy therefore stands a reasonable chance of holding a combined resource of 40Mlbs (Firawa revision + Bir En Nar maiden JORC), justifying uplift to 24p per share."

Surely, if the remaining assays are as good as the current ones, then Bir En Nar is certainly pointing the way to 20Mlbs-ish as a maiden resource.

Anyone with a better handle on this care to comment?